Has Shardul Thakur Done Enough?

Is his X-factor a gamble that India should take?

Merriam-Webster defines the “X-factor” as being a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence. Shardul Thakur, one of the latest additions to India’s white-ball roster typifies this idea of the X-factor. When he runs up to bowl, there truly is no way of telling what he’ll produce. There’s a good chance it could be an expertly delivered slower ball, luring the opposition into an ambitious shot that results in a miscue and catch, but there’s also a good chance it could also be an innocuous full toss that gets slammed over the boundary rope. 

The thing is, both of those possibilities are etched into both the memory of the average viewer and also the scoreboard. No matter what Shardul Thakur has done on the cricket field, it’s been worth paying attention to, for better or worse.

I find most Shardul Thakur performances worth noting. I needed to, in order to write this article, but I’ve never really had a positive opinion of Shardul Thakur until the Gabba Test earlier this year. I’d always written him off as a player who is certainly unpredictable enough to be an X-factor, but nowhere near as good. That was probably due to his poor performances being so poor that his overall statistics are wrecked, but he does have a lot of standout performances.

In fact, he has one of the best games per MOTM award of any Indian T20I cricketer. It’s a small sample size, with Shardul Thakur having only played 22 T20Is, but it is something. He’s in the bottom left corner with Krunal Pandya and Kuldeep Yadav, other X-factor players, and that should tell you what Shardul Thakur is. Sometimes maybe good, and sometimes maybe shit. 

The difference between Shardul and the others, though, is that he’s still in his “maybe good” phase. While it’s still going okay, I’d like to look back at his performances in international cricket thus far, and predict how he can be used going forward.

Tests

Shardul Thakur made his Test debut on October 12, 2018, against the West Indies, in Hyderabad, India. After bowling 10 deliveries, he suffered a groin strain and didn’t bowl again. Let’s pretend that debut never happened.

*Ahem*

Shardul Thakur made his Test debut on January 14, 2021, against Australia, in Brisbane, Australia. He scored a second-innings high of 67, and also picked up figures of 3/94 and 4/61, bringing his wickets tally to 7. 

That’s a pretty amazing performance, and it came as part of one of the most famous wins in the history of Indian cricket. And yet, much of the memories associated with that game have been linked to the final day’s play, where Rishabh Pant played a match-winning 89* to haul India across the line. Honestly, I myself place greater symbolic importance on the Rishabh Pant innings, but this Shardul Thakur performance seriously deserves more attention.

Again, this was Shardul Thakur’s debut. Get that in your head. It’s important context for what I’m about to tell you. Ok. Now, here’s a list of all players that managed a higher or equal score than Shardul Thakur’s 67, and also picked up more or equal wickets across their Test debut:

1. Albert Trott (Australia) v. England, Jan 10 - 14 1895, England tour of Australia

Trott, an alleged distant relative of Jonathan, scored 38* and 72* and nabbed figures of 0/9 and 8/27. He is the only person with a higher score and total wickets tally than Shardul Thakur on Test debut. He made his debut in 1895.

Now, this list is probably flawed because there are likely cricketers like Thakur who break down or barely contributed in their first Test, and their “real” Test debut might’ve featured a better performance than what Thakur put up at the Gabba?

Do you care who they are? I don’t. 

Shardul Thakur put up one of the best Test debuts in history. That’s all you should care about.

Don’t even think about the future. Let’s be honest, Thakur is not going to become a Test regular at any point in his career. The fast bowling riches of India are too deep, and with players like Washington Sundar and Axar Patel coming through, there probably won’t be room for another lower-order all-rounder. 

All we’ll have is Shardul Thakur’s Test debut. And that’s all we’ll need.

ODIs

I understand how the “Shardul’s Performance” category could be dismissed as subjective. If you want to dismiss it, I’m cool with that. Some people might think a 50 off 40 in a successful T20 chase of 180 is actually a good inning, whereas I would think it would be a horrible inning. Up to you, really.

This is every single Shardul Thakur ODI performance. He’s been fairly good on occasion, like the most recent ODI against England, and he’s also been fairly shit. Even when he takes heaps of wickets, he still manages to be expensive. Of course, sometimes this doesn’t matter all that much.

In ODI no. 4281, for example, Thakur had an economy rate of 6.17, which is not ideal, but England as a whole struck at 5.95. He was only barely over the required run rate, which was helped by Bhuvneshwar Kumar bowling 9 overs at an astounding economy rate of 3.33. His economy rate in this game mattered far less than his wickets tally, though: he dismissed a dangerous Jonny Bairstow for 94 off 66 and nabbed both Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler in his next over. He’s shown the capacity to take wickets in bunches, changing games quickly.

But, his bowling strike rate isn’t actually consistently impressive. Since his debut, with a qualification of 10 ODI wickets, 5 Indian bowlers have better bowling strike rates than Shardul Thakur. The thing is, though, of them, one is nowhere near the ODI picture (Khaleel Ahmed), and two have had their form fall off a cliff (Yuzvendra Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav). His competition is really with Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Shami. Jasprit Bumrah has a bowling strike rate about 3 balls worse than Thakur in this period, but his economy rate is an incredible two runs better. Bhuvneshwar Kumar also has an economy rate of 5.19, so he’s a lock as well. 

Assuming India plays Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah, and Ravindra Jadeja, there are two spots left from 7-11 in India’s lineup. Theoretically, Shami and Thakur could both fit in there as wicket-taking options, because India doesn’t really have spinners who are forcing their way into the team. But with the next World Cup being played at home, India will probably try everything to get another spinner into the XI. 

For the sake of argument, let’s imagine a reality where Thakur is at 8. This means that India bat to 8, and their 6, 7, and 8 are Pandya, Jadeja, and Thakur. In my view, Thakur should be grouped with those two players instead of the bowlers, because although he’s had few opportunities to showcase his batting at the international level, what he has shown is promising‒arguably more promising than his bowling. Pandya, Jadeja, and Thakur could split 20 or so overs between them, and the other 30 or so could be handled by 3 frontline bowlers. India would be able to make up for whatever runs Thakur concede by being able to bat deeper, and thus more aggressively. 

This idea becomes even more appealing if Thakur’s recent form persists. He’s taken 10 wickets in his last 4 ODIs, and that stretch features 3 performances that I’ve labeled “Good”‒the best streak he’s had since his debut in the format.

I’m hesitant to jump to a conclusion regarding where Thakur fits into the Indian team because there is absolutely zero hurry to do so. The next ODI World Cup is in two years, and by then, Thakur would’ve ideally played a greater chunk of matches. 15 ODIs aren’t enough to draw useful conclusions about a player. Instead of conclusions, all we have is an idea of what Thakur could be. If he reaches the peak of his potential, he could radically transform how India plays ODI cricket: more aggressive, more flexible, and more unpredictable‒he could really bring the X-factor. 

T20Is

There’s greater urgency to deciding how Thakur fits into the T20I equation, though. The World Cup is only a few months away, and then there’ll be another crack at it in 2022. 

Just like in ODIs, in T20Is, Shardul Thakur is an expensive strike bowler. Some of his performances have been given ratings far better than what their bowling figures would indicate, but because Thakur is likely going to be regarded by the opposition as a “hit-me” bowler, he has the opportunity to take several wickets in quick succession. 

Take his performance in T20I no. 1037, for example. His overall figures were poor, but he performed when it mattered. Heading into the last four overs, New Zealand’s required run rate was 8.75. Mitchell Santner and Scott Kuggeleijn (a piece of shit, by the way) were at the crease together as New Zealand’s last real capable hitters. Shardul Thakur bowled the 17th over, conceded only four runs, and got both Santner and Kuggeleijn out.

His performance in T20I no. 1135 was similarly poor when it came to overall figures, but his impact was even higher. Heading into the last four overs, England’s required run rate was 11.50, and their last true batsmen were at the crease: Eoin Morgan and Ben Stokes. Thakur bowled the 17th over, conceded only seven runs, and got both Morgan and Stokes out.

Performances like these give credence to Thakur’s burgeoning reputation as a wicket-taking T20I bowler, but they also do little to dispel how expensive he can be.

Thakur is one of the most expensive white-ball bowlers in the world. I’m of the opinion that economy rate and defensive bowling are what T20 bowlers should prioritize, but despite how loose Thakur can be, maybe he could still be of use to India.

In playing Jadeja, Bumrah, Kumar, and Sundar, India field one of T20 cricket’s most economical bowling attacks. But Sundar and Kumar, since Shardul Thakur’s debut, take more than 4 overs to get a wicket. To counteract how defensively they bowl, the prospect of Thakur’s bowling guaranteeing a wicket or two every game feels enticing. He competes with both Navdeep Saini and Deepak Chahar for that undecided spot, unless India decides to persist with Chahal, bring back Yadav, or give further opportunities to Rahul Chahar. 

Saini’s figures at the international level, in my opinion, overstate his quality, as his two IPL seasons have only shown promise and nothing more. He’s quick, but I don’t feel he has much else to offer. Deepak Chahar, on the other hand, I think is really good. He was unlucky to not get a game during the recent India v England T20I series and has definitely bowled better than Thakur in T20 cricket. What holds him back is that he fits a similar mold to Bhuvneshwar Kumar, and also probably isn’t as good of a batsman as Thakur, although they both haven’t batted all that much at IPL level.

India has seen all this data, though, and they’ve decided to give Thakur the long leash. They know he’s expensive, but they also know that he has the capacity to single-handedly change games. He’s been doing it more and more often of late, and has also curbed his truly horrible performances: I’ve only given 1 out of his last 10 games a “Bad” rating.

Just like in ODI cricket, Thakur hasn’t played enough to warrant a true conclusion about his quality. 22 T20Is really isn’t that much. The key to deciding where he stands amongst his competition will be in the upcoming IPL, but from the way MS Dhoni has utilized his bowlers with the Chennai Super Kings, I predict Thakur will play a lot of games where he only gets to bowl an over or two. The same goes for who I view as Thakur’s main competition: Deepak Chahar.

With very little evidence to look back on, India has to make a decision on Thakur. It's one of the most significant decisions they’ll have to make. For better or worse, Thakur’s X-factor has the potential to completely flip the fortunes of India, and they'll have to decide whether the risk that comes with him is worth it.

I didn’t come to a true conclusion in last week’s Dawid Malan piece, but as I’m an India supporter, I feel that I should take a stance on this issue. 

*Inhale*

I wouldn’t play him. I’m fucking scared of him, man. I don’t even care that he can bat. India isn’t going to move on from its anchors, so I see very little possibility in him frequently getting the opportunity to bat. I mean, he’s only gotten to bat five times in 22 T20Is. Why do you even need to bat to eight in T20 cricket? You can have seven capable batters who take up 120 balls; that means that each batter has to last less than 20 balls. Kohli and Rohit probably average 40 balls faced per inning or something stupid like that. Do you really need Shardul Thakur for insurance? That insurance goes at fucking nine runs per over with the ball. Get it away from me.

*Exhale*

Oh well, T20’s a bit of a lottery anyways.

Edit: I completely forgot about T Natarajan, somehow. Thakur will also have to prove to be better than him over the course of the IPL.